I finished this book in 72 hours. It was terrifying.
Nuclear War: A Scenario describes how a nuclear war could kill 5 billion people. It begins out of the blue on a spring afternoon.
How Nuclear War Could Happen
In this scenario, North Korea launches a single ICBM at Washington, D.C. We never find out why.
Our radar identifies it immediately. Our missile defenses try over and over to shoot it down.
They fail.
A massive warhead hits DC, destroying it completely. Soon after, another hits a nuclear power plant in California. This causes a massive explosion, firestorm, and radiation release.
America launches a massive counterattack at North Korea. But in the way of our missiles sits Russia.
Russian radars are less advanced than ours. So, Russian leaders think those American missiles are aimed at them.
Russia retaliates. It launches all its nuclear missiles at the United States.
The United States, already reeling from multiple missile strikes, sees the Russian barrage on radar. We retaliate by launching everything we have.
And just like that, the world ends.
Most humans are killed. Those that remain go hungry in a nuclear winter.
Even once the earth returns to normal, the small number of remaining humans have been set back to a prehistoric society.
How Do We Prevent This?
There's nothing we can do that's more important than preventing a nuclear war like this.
But how in the hell do we do it? So far, I have only a couple ideas.
Our "Launch on Warning" policy needs to go, right now. This policy says the US will launch nuclear weapons just based on seeing incoming nukes on radar.
The problem is, radar can be wrong! We could wind up launching nukes because of an attack that never happened.
We should also reduce the number of nuclear weapons in existence worldwide.
We did this successfully in the SALT talks. We need to do it again.
Fewer nukes means less potential destruction. It means the survival of our species.
Being in the technology industry my entire career, I'd also like to see us help prevent nuclear war. I don't know how to do that.
Can we build better radar systems less prone to false alarms? Can we create new social media platforms that further understanding between peoples that hate each other?
I don't know what the right answer is. But we better find some, and fast.
Looking Towards the Election
I don't get political on this blog much. But reading this book, I was struck by a thought.
"I don't want Biden or Trump making these decisions. I don't respect them."
If there's ever a nuclear crisis — God forbid — we need a levelheaded person with excellent judgment running things. Kennedy did it successfully during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
But I don't think these guys can.
Biden in particular concerns me. He is clearly senile. How can he be trusted to make these decisions?
Wrap-Up
I wish I had a cheerier topic for you on a Friday. But this book really hit home with me, and I thought we needed to discuss it.
I suggest you read it and give it some thought. We don't like to think about these things, but we need to.
As a world, we need to talk about how we can make nuclear war less likely. Nothing else we will do in our lifetimes matters more than this.
Moreover, reading this book reminds me how fragile life is. Let's enjoy each day, while we have the chance.
What are your thoughts on preventing nuclear war?
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Elon Musk (Part 1): Overcoming the Odds
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