The Pirates open the 2024 baseball season tomorrow, visiting the Miami Marlins. There is much optimism for the coming season. This time last year it seemed like I was the only one that felt the Pirates might contend for a playoff spot. They got off to a hot start, but in the middle of that hot start Oneil Cruz suffered a season ending broken ankle. That essentially ended any hope that they would be a contender. This year many are writing that the Pirates will contend for a wild card and might even win the division. Certainly, the Pirates seem stronger this year in every phase of the game. What will determine how the 2024 season unfolds and how successful will the Pirates be? It goes without saying that the Pirates will need to avoid the devasting injury that befell Oneil Cruz last season. Assuming that the Pirates will remain relatively healthy, this is what must happen for the Pirates to make the playoffs or win the division.
I previously wrote that Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo must come close to producing the offensive production that they showed the last 2 months of the 2023 season, and nothing has changed my mind. The Pirate management team showed they have a lot of faith in Triolo by making him the starting 2nd baseman. Last fall I thought Triolo would be on the team, but in the role of the super utility man playing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and possibly shortstop. I also thought that the Pirates would keep both Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Instead, they will both will open the season in AAA. They did not show enough in spring training to warrant being kept on the team, once it was decided that Triolo would be the full-time 2nd baseman. Keeping Alika Williams was a surprise, but I imagine that that he will be sent down once Ji Hwan Bae is healthy. That says something about the Pirate offense, where management is comfortable playing a no-hit glove man once in a while. Speaking of Bae, in 16 plate appearances in spring training, he did walk 4 times, so there may be hope for him yet.
Bryan Reynolds must get closer to being the player he was in 2021. He has been in a steady decline since then. Looking at two areas, WAR and OPS+, beginning in 2021 his WAR has gone from 5.9 to 3.0 to 2.4 and his OPS+ has gone from 145 to 127 to 113. In order for this team to win the division Reynold must at least play between his 2021 and 2022 levels. In an earlier blog I mentioned that the Pirates would be fine if Reynolds even played at his 2023 level. Since that time, I have changed my mind especially if they want to win the division. Reynolds has not had a particularly great spring, slashing .196/261/476. I never put a lot of weight on springtime performance. He could be experimenting around a little with his approach and swing. I feel that Reynolds will bounce back because he just seems to be a solid skilled player. How much he bounces back will go a long way to determining how this Pirate season turns out. If he would continue his decline, then this may be the first Pirate problem of 2024. On the other hand, Jack Suwinski is headed in the right direction. Using the same formula, Suwinski has seen his WAR go from 1.2 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. His OPS+ went from 99 in 2022 to 115 in 2023. If he can continue this upward trend the Pirates will be able to take another step closer to the division title.
There is no question that once the Pirates acquired Michael Taylor and decided to play Triolo at 2nd base they were going to put their best defensive team on the field in this century. If Carlos Santana was going to be at first base, they might be putting the best defensive team in the league on the field in 2024. Even without Santana this will be a very strong defensive team at least on paper. Will they play to that potential in 2024? In my view it is a very likely occurrence. I have always gone with Baseball's Reference's Defensive Efficiency Rating as my main comparison stat when it comes to fielding. Last year the Pirates finished 18th in DER. I expect them to crack the top 5 this year if they are going to win the division.
Then there is the Pirate pitching staff. The Pirates are going to prove or disprove the theory that you cannot have enough pitching. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man Roster and only 4 are 30 years old or older. The Pirates have 9 pitchers that could easily go into the starting rotation and by mid-season that number should grow to 11. Two mainstays of last year's bullpen are going to start the season on the IL, Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski, and it looks like the bullpen will not miss a beat. Dauri Moreta is going to miss the entire season due to elbow surgery, but there is no talk of getting bullpen help. With the high number of arms that is on this squad, hopefully, they will find 13 that will be very good to excellent in run prevention. The Pirates should be better in every phase of the game, hitting, fielding, base running, and pitching. The question will be, will this be good enough and will the players perform to their expected levels.
Can this team win the division? As long as they can avoid the injury bug, I would say they have at least a 50-50 chance. Could the Pirates win the American League East or the National League West, not a chance in hell. Thankfully the Pirates are in the National League Central, where all the teams are in a state of transition. I think it will boil down to how does the core of the Pirates perform, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and the starting pitcher that day. They will either be the Magnificent 7 or the 7 Little Foys. It should be one of the most interesting and exciting seasons that Pittsburgh has seen in about 10 years, starting tomorrow. The Pirates Morning Report will start on the following day with a concise, no nonsense look, (well maybe a little nonsense, I just can't help myself) at why the Pirates won or lost each game. I can hardly wait, but I must.
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