Home values drop in more than half of US off pandemic peaks

gqlshare

Apr 8

"Survey says" looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.

Buzz: Home values have declined from pandemic-era peaks in more than half the states and metropolitan areas, according to some new price data.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed home-price indexes created by Freddie Mac for all U.S. states, Washington, D.C., and 382 metropolitan areas. These "paired sales" benchmarks track values by comparing price changes in individual single-family homes and townhomes based on data from sales transactions and loan refinancings.

Topline

Let's first consider the fall from home pricing's dizzying heights, found inside Freddie Mac's data.

Prices are off 2022 highs in 31 of the 50 states and Washington, D.C. They've also fallen from pandemic peaks in 199 of the 382 metros tracked. And prices were off all-time tops in all 26 California metros studied.

Still, in every state and metro, prices remain above February 2020 – and in most cases vales are far higher than the last month before the coronavirus upended real estate markets and the economy.

Biggest state drops

The biggest drops among the states were in a decidedly Western collection. Here are the 10 largest declines from last year's price pinnacle and their remaining gains from February 2020 …

Idaho: Off 10% from peak and up 48% in pandemic.
Nevada: Off 8.4% from peak and up 33% in pandemic.
Washington: Off 7.5% from peak and up 33% in pandemic.
Arizona: Off 7.1% from peak and up 49% in pandemic.
California: Off 6.9% from peak and up 27% in pandemic.
Utah: Off 6.8% from peak and up 46% in pandemic.
District of Columbia: Off 6.7% from peak and up 6% in pandemic.
Oregon: Off 5.6% from peak and up 30% in pandemic.
Colorado: Off 5.2% from peak and up 34% in pandemic.
Vermont: Off 4.4% from peak and up 40% in pandemic.

Biggest metro drops

The sharpest declines in metros were largely in California, Idaho and Nevada markets. The 10 largest dips from 2022 highs, and gain from February 2020 …

Boise: Off 13.1% from peak and up 40% in pandemic.
Carson City: Off 12.2% from peak and up 26% in pandemic.
Austin: Off 11.3% from peak and up 43% in pandemic.
San Francisco: Off 10.7% from peak and up 13% in pandemic.
Coeur d'Alene: Off 10.6% from peak and up 52% in pandemic.
Idaho Falls: Off 10.5% from peak and up 47% in pandemic.
Sacramento: Off 9.7% from peak and up 26% in pandemic.
Santa Cruz: Off 9.3% from peak and up 23% in pandemic.
Stockton: Off 9.3% from peak and up 31% in pandemic.
Reno: Off 9.2% from peak and up 31% in pandemic.

Bottom line

Last year's soaring mortgage rates cooled a searing feeding frenzy for homes. The result iced home sales and price drops in much of the nation.

House hunters can hope that discounted prices, along with modestly lower mortgage rates, will make for a more buyer-friendly market in the rest of 2023.