[New post] Could sightings of jelly-like creatures signal El Niño on the horizon?
gqlshare posted: "Jim Serpa was like a giddy school kid exploring Mother Nature's classroom as he scanned the sand."There's one … there's another," Serpa exclaimed as he walked along the damp high-tide line in north San Clemente on Monda" Times-Herald
Jim Serpa was like a giddy school kid exploring Mother Nature's classroom as he scanned the sand.
"There's one … there's another," Serpa exclaimed as he walked along the damp high-tide line in north San Clemente on Monday, April 10.
Dotting the shore were hundreds of "by-the-wind sailors," jelly-like creatures known for their beautiful blue hues that get pushed to Southern California from tropical waters by wind and ocean currents.
Thousands of the creatures were spotted Friday, April 7, about two miles from shore and by the weekend many had washed up at various beaches between the South Bay, Huntington Beach, Crystal Cove and San Clemente.
A "by-the-wind sailor" lies washed up on the Crystal Cove State Beach in Laguna Beach, CA on Monday, April 10, 2023. The jelly-like creatures are known for their blue hue when in the ocean. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Several "by-the-wind sailors" lie washed up on the Crystal Cove State Beach in Laguna Beach, CA on Monday, April 10, 2023. The jelly-like creatures are known for their blue hue when in the ocean. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)
A "by-the-wind sailor" lies washed up on the Crystal Cove State Beach in Laguna Beach, CA on Monday, April 10, 2023. The jelly-like creatures are known for their blue hue when in the ocean. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)
People walk the shoreline at Crystal Cove State Beach in Laguna Beach, CA on Monday, April 10, 2023. By-the-wind sailors have been washing up on shore for several days. (Photo by Paul Bersebach, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Retired State Parks ranger Jim Serpa found by-the-wind sailors washed up in north San Clemente on April 10, 2023. (Photo by Laylan Connelly/SCNG)
The creatures' scientific name is Velella velellas, and they are distinguished by their "sails" on top, which also look a little like a mohawk. When they hit the shore, they start to die and dry out, turning clear, looking more like a piece of plastic than a sea creature. Though by-the-wind sailors look like jellyfish because of their gelatinous nature, they are not, and they don't have the sting associated with jellies, though their tentacles on the bottom can irritate the skin.
Their appearance could be a sign of a changing weather pattern on the horizon – the onset of El Niño.
"Maybe, just maybe, they are forecasting for us," said Serpa, who is a retired State Parks ranger.
Longtime Dana Wharf Whale Watching boat captain Todd Mansur said he has been watching the waters for signs of El Niño heading our way and if models are correct, there could be a drastic change on the horizon.
"Typically, it means we're seeing a change," Mansur said of the tropical species' appearance in recent days. "This could be a sign there's something subsurface we're not seeing from our sea temp gauges and sticking our toes in the ocean to check the temperature, that might be showing signs of this change."
Water in recent months has been toe-numbing cold, registering in the low 50s in recent weeks, but there's signs it's already warming, said Mansur. He speculates that by June, water temps could be in the low 70s, at least high 60s.
"Maybe this is just the beginning of it," he said.
Already, anglers have reported seeing the red crabs in the bellies of fish being caught off shore, Mansur said.
It could mean more tropical fish like dorado, yellowfin, striped marlin and mahi mahi being hooked locally soon. During El Niño years, they follow a "river of water" called the Davidson Current that helps push them toward Southern California.
"It's like a lottery ticket, you never know what you're going to get," Mansur said. "It's a surprise every year."
National Weather Service meteorologist Brandt Maxwell said forecasts are showing about a 60% chance of El Niño conditions this summer.
El Niño happens when the sea temperature near the equator, west of South America, increases by a degree or two. But that doesn't always mean water temperature will warm here, because much is dictated by the winds, Maxwell said.
If winds are coming from the north, they bring colder water to the surface, a process called "upwelling," he said. But a southerly wind stops upwelling and allows the water to warm up from the ambient air and the sun.
"If something was moved into our coastal waters from the south, at this point, it's not affecting our water temperatures yet," Maxwell said. "It's still unseasonably cold. Spring water temperatures can take a long time to heat up."
An El Niño can also bring greater incidences of hurricanes in the tropical east Pacific, Maxwell said.
"That's probably the biggest thing that happens in the summer, greater incidents of the hurricanes, that could bring up the surf in Orange County – if it happens," he said.
Predictions aren't perfect, Maxwell warns. La Nina is typically associated with dry winters, El Niño with rain. This year, a La Nina brought record precipitation. Back in 2016, El Nino brought little winter rain.
"It's not a guarantee by any means," Maxwell said.
Another sea creature that showed up in big numbers during the last El Niño? Juvenile white sharks, gathering in aggregate groups along the Southern California coastline.
Some juvenile white sharks never left, still hanging around off Carpinteria toward the north and Torrey Pines in San Diego, said Cal State Long Beach Shark Lab Director Chris Lowe.
"The question for this summer will be will those hotspots continue or will there be new ones," he said. "Right now, the water is pretty cool, so hard to say when the babies will show up, but it should be soon."
As to the potential for El Niño conditions?
"I think it will be a 'wait and see,'" Lowe said, "what the early summer brings us."
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