Firefighters battling the deadly McKinney Fire near the California-Oregon line are girding for potentially strong thunderstorms over the Klamath National Forest on Tuesday, which could either help quell California's largest fire of 2022 and harden fire lines, or fan it further out of control.
The forecast for monsoonal thunderstorms is expected to complicate firefighters' path to containing the McKinney Fire and several other blazes burning in the Klamath National Forest that have forced thousands of people from their homes. It comes after firefighters reported strong progress Monday night in building dozer lines and protecting the remote city of Yreka — work that could be tested under more intense fire conditions.
"It looks very good right now," said Mike Lindbery, a U.S. Forest Service spokesman. "Now, that could change, as you see things come into alignment. If we begin to see clear skies over the fire, expect it to get up and run."
"This is a fuels-driven fire," he added. "And as soon as those big logs sitting there smoldering get some heat on them, they're going to ignite. And if we have anything like winds, collapsing thunderstorms — anything like that — it's going to push the fire again."
The McKinney Fire remained 0% contained Tuesday morning after having charred 56,165 acres in Siskiyou County in far northern California. The fire claimed the lives of two people, whose bodies were found in a vehicle along Doggett Creek Road, north of Highway 96 and west of the community of Klamath River. Authorities have not released their names, citing a need to identify them and notify their families.
The century-old Klamath River Community Hall lies in ruins after it was destroyed by the McKinney Fire in the Klamath National Forest northwest of Yreka, Calif., on Monday, Aug. 1, 2022. (Photo: David McNew/AFP via Getty Images)
The blaze began Friday afternoon and, in less than a day, swelled into the state's largest conflagration of 2022. But a drumbeat of lighting-charged thunderstorms have hit the area in recent days — sparking several other fires in Siskiyou County and forcing fire officials to scramble their crews between newly-ignited fires.
In all, the fires have forced more than 5,800 people from their homes while threatening more than 4,500 structures. Officials have given no official accounting for how many structures have burned, though residents have reported witnessing dozens of destroyed houses, mostly along Highway 96 and the Klamath River.
On Monday night, a light drizzle fell over the McKinney Fire — allowing firefighters to cut secondary dozer lines and attack the fire head-on, Lindbery said. It marked the second straight night of rainy, humid weather that's helped crews to make substantial progress against the blaze — even if fire managers have yet to announce any official containment of the blaze.
"They were able to get out there and start getting in some contingency and some alternate lines in place and got some really good work done," Lindbery said. He said fire managers want to see those lines tested by the fire before announcing an increase in containment.
Tuesday, however, may bring an ironic problem with potentially devastating consequences: Too much rain.
Record-setting monsoonal moisture moving over Northern California has created many of the conditions needed for strong, drenching thunderstorms that can drop a sizeable amount of rain in a short amount of time, said Brad Schaaf, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
That's a dangerous problem for recently-burned landscapes, because wildfires can turn soils hydrophobic — meaning the ground can no longer absorb water very well, causing rain to flow quickly downhill and into drainages. That, combined with burned logs and other debris left over from a fire, can cause flash flooding with destructive debris flows.
Burned playground equipment is seen in the ruins of the century old Klamath River Community Hall. (Photo: David McNew/AFP via Getty Images)
Already, some debris flows were recorded over parts of the McKinney Fire on Sunday after .5 inches of rain fell over the burn area, Schaaf said. And on Tuesday, meteorologists said the atmosphere in Siskiyou County contained more moisture than ever recorded for that part of California — more than twice as much as on a typical day in early August, Schaff said.
Still, forecasters said several factors could influence whether thunderstorms actually form over the burn area, and whether those storms produce heavy rains, mostly lightning, or both.
"Storms could be strong, producing gusts to 50 mph," Schaaf said. "Which could be very problematic for people near the fire lines."
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