The Pirates, despite their 10-game losing streak, open up an interesting part of their schedule when they host the Seatle Mariners tonight at PNC Park. They play 20 of their next 29 games at home. Granted their home record has not been anything to write home about, but it's nice to be home for that many games. They only play 9 games against teams with winning records and 6 of those games are home. If there was any time to right the ship and at least have a season where they finish close to .500 this is it.
In order for that to happen, the Pirates need a change of philosophy. They need to become more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball. When the Pirates got off to that hot start last year one of the things they did was to take advantage of the new rule change and tried to steal a lot of bases. When they went through a phase where they were getting caught stealing, they went into a shell that they have never come out of. Right now, they are 18th in baseball in stolen bases. They have stolen 72 bases and have been caught only 14 times for a success rate of 83%. That is way over 75% which is considered the parameter for making stolen bases a positive impact. The Pirates need to be more aggressive at the plate. In my view they take way too many strikes. In the most recent series against the Padres and I know this is only 3 games, they took 23, 29, 31 strikes each game. Compare that with the Padres who took 22, 22, and 18 strikes per game. The first game was about the same, but it was dramatically less in game 2 and 3. In game 2 the Padres had more situational takes because Luis Ortiz was working from behind so much. The Pirates took most of their strikes early in the count. During the series rookie sensation Jackson Merril took only one strike for all three games. The Pirates need to start swinging at more strikes. I know the idea is to get the opposing pitchers pitch count up but there may be a hidden advantage of being more aggressive on pitches in the zone. If his count his low, then you may have more of a chance to see the same pitcher for the third or even fourth time which has been shown to be an advantage for the batter. The Pirates need to start swinging at strikes. The Pirates need to play Ji Hwan Bae more just to see what he can do and get the running game going again.
What is it with the starting rotation and fastball velocity. Beginning in 2022 almost every starting pitcher the Pirates have had that has a mid to upper 90 fast ball, loses velocity the longer he pitches for the Pirates. It is even happening to the great Paul Skenes. In his last outing he did not have one fast ball that touch a 100 MPH. In fact, there were one or two fastballs that were 96 MPH. In his first outing he through numerous fastballs that touched 100-101 MPH. I am not going to go through the numbers, but you can look it up, beginning with Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Jarred Jones, and Mitch Keller. They have all had drops in velocity from when they debuted with the Pirates. There was year that during a winter workout that Keller was throwing close to 99 MPH. He has not come close to that during the regular season. In his last outing he rarely touched 94-95 MPH. Most of his "fastballs" were 92-93 MPH. Most of these drops in velocity are anywhere from 1-3 MPH. The poster child for this phenomenon is Luis Ortiz. When he came up at the end of 2022 his fastball regularly hit 99 MPH and once in a while touched a 100. Last year his velocity mysteriously went down to 95-97 MPH and although it has gone back up to 97-98 at times, he is still not touching 100 MPH. Now if this is some kind of plan or philosophy of the Pirates' coaching staff to help save the arms of the starters, that may not be such a bad idea, but they sure aren't talking about it. You do not see this drop off in any of the relievers. Even though he has had some rocky outings David Bednar's fastball is clocking in at 98-99 MPH. Could it be some flawed training method the Pirates are doing with their starting pitchers. Whatever it is, it is definitely a mystery. Keep a close eye on Paul Skenes tonight and see if he hits 100 MPH on any of his pitches. If he doesn't, we may be watching the destruction of a starting rotation by the Pirate management team. The game is on Apple TV. I can see the documentary coming soon.
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