As Kamala Harris energizes the Democratic base and rises in the polls, two numbers signal how difficult her task really is: One is 66, the other is 188.
Harris and her running mate Tim Walz are promoting "the politics of joy," but in the latest Associated Press poll, 66% of respondents express pessimism about the direction of the country. Her upbeat message contradicts a sour mood that has gripped the nation for years, instigated by COVID-19 and aggravated by persistent inflation.
As Jason Miller, a close Donald Trump adviser, told the AP, good vibes are "not making gas or food or housing less expensive."
History reinforces the obstacle Harris faces. In the last 188 years, only one vice president -- George H.W. Bush in 1988 -- has accomplished what she is trying to do: move directly from second fiddle to center stage.
Yes, vice presidents like Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson won terms of their own after succeeding dead presidents. And Richard Nixon and Joe Biden eventually reached the White House years after their tenures as veeps ended. But Bush was the only sitting vice president since Martin Van Buren in 1836 to win the presidency, and Harris reflects the essential dilemma that has confronted all Oval Office wannabes.
There are only two slogans in American politics: "You Never Had It So Good" and "It's Time for a Change." All incumbents run on the first adage and all challengers on the second. But Harris, like any vice president, has to embrace both arguments at once. She has to defend the record of the Biden team while promising to be an agent of change. It's an inherently mixed message -- and very hard to pull off.
History, however, teaches another lesson that works in Harris' favor: The candidate who seizes the banner of optimism, who promises a brighter future, often enjoys a huge advantage.
For nearly a century, Democrats have embraced the theme song first popularized by Franklin Roosevelt, "Happy Days Are Here Again." At age 43, Jack Kennedy ran in 1960 heralding a "New Frontier." In 1992, Bill Clinton advertised himself as "The Man From Hope." And Barack Obama rode to victory in 2008 promising "Hope and Change."
Team Harris is trying to strike a similar chord. Walz, who even has a daughter named Hope, thundered at a campaign rally in Detroit, "All the things that make me mad about those other guys and all the things they do wrong, the one thing that I will not forgive them for is they're trying to steal the joy from this country."
Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki summed up this strategy to the Washington Post: "After the last 10 years of American politics, people are just exhausted. They're tired of being angry. And so giving people something to be excited about, telling them there's a role for you in this space, is hugely important right now."
Biden was a creature of the past, dragged down by age and frailty and an approval rating stuck at around 40%. Harris offers the possibility of a fresh start, a new chapter, at a moment when Democrats agree that's what voters want.
Anita Dunn, a close Biden confidant, stressed this point in an interview with Ryan Lizza of Politico: "This is a change electorate: 75% of the people in this country think the country is on the wrong track. We've all seen this now for two years. ... And what happened over the past two and a half weeks is that the Democratic Party grabbed the mantle of change, which is very difficult to do when you happen to control the White House and be the incumbent party."
Trump, too, is talking about change, but he's convinced that voters are not tired of being angry -- rather, that they are angrier than ever. In his world, it's not morning in America, it's midnight. The sky is not dawning, but darkening. As Trump said in a recent campaign speech, "We are a nation in decline. We are a failing nation. We are a nation that has lost its confidence, lost its willpower and lost its strength."
Team Trump, writes the Post, is "offering a dark and dystopian vision of Democratic rule. ... Their calculation is that the country believes things are way off track and that their darker message will resonate with how voters see reality."
Trump is counting on a message of fear, Harris on a message of hope. Only one can be right.
(Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
No comments:
Post a Comment