"Everyone" knew that if President Biden succumbed to the massive pressure from within his own Democratic Party and stepped away from this year's presidential campaign, California Gov. Gavin Newsom would step right up.
Except he didn't. To fully understand this , first consider the old journalistic adage: "If you want to understand a story, follow the money."
It's not always the explanation for what happens in politics and certainly not the only reason for a lot of things. But here are a couple of cold facts: Biden did not give up on this year's race until the money dried up. His significant donors essentially turned off their funding tap while Biden's fellow elected Democrats worked at showing him he could not win because many Americans – including Democrats – considered him too senile for the job.
When he opted out, plenty of other ambitious Democrats could have entered the lists, Newsom among them. There were also Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, to name just a few. But Newsom and the others had 91 million reasons not to oppose Biden's anointing of Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.
That's how many dollars resided in the Biden-Harris reelection campaign coffers at the mid-July moment of decision. It was all available immediately to Harris because her name was on the accounts, but anyone else would have had a protracted legal battle to get any of it, even if they could win a majority of national convention delegates. So Harris could retain the entire Biden campaign staff, she could pay for campaign flights and run television ads – all before Newsom or any other potential rival could do any of those things. And all before she raised a nickel on her own.
Harris immediately put the cash to use, employing some of it to help her raise a record $81 million in her first day as a presidential candidate and more than $200 million in her first week. No one else could match that, so she essentially became a candidate by acclimation, or as Republicans chose to see it, via a coup. If that's what it was, it was a peaceful coup, within and without her party, her ascension to the role of prospective Democratic nominee going without a glitch.
Newsom had other reasons to stay out, too. For one, there was his weeks-old promise not to oppose Harris if she ended up a presidential prospect this year. The two have long been San Francisco stablemates, both proteges of former Mayor Willie Brown and users of the same campaign managers.
Had Newsom, 56, broken that commitment, he would have been reminded of it for whatever time might be left in his political career after being termed out as governor in late 2026. He would have been called a liar, and correctly. He had to stay out.
So there were three reasons Newsom did not run: One was money, another his promise and a third the possible effects on whatever future he might have in public affairs.
There's also the possibility that Harris loses this fall. She currently polls about evenly with Trump and can expect a bounce after her mid-August formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Almost all nominees get that sort of boost.
But it rarely lasts into October, when the first ballots will be cast.
If Harris loses, Democrats will immediately begin thinking about 2028 candidates. There would stand Newsom, a Biden loyalist until the end, a keeper of his commitment to Harris, looking like that rare commodity, an honest politician.
He could be opposed by any or all of the folks mentioned early on as potential Harris vice presidential choices. But unlike Newsom, most of them will not have campaigned nationally for other Democrats or debated any major Republicans from across the nation.
So whatever he says, Newsom might be affected by the November election returns differently than anyone else: If Harris wins, he stands to get a major cabinet post should he want one. If she loses, he's set up to run in 2028, with two full years to campaign.
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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