Baltimore, MD – Maryland takes a significant step forward in its climate strategy by completing an electrification study by the Maryland Public Service Commission. The study, directed by the Climate Solutions Now Act (CSNA) passed by the Maryland General Assembly in 2022, evaluates the capability of the state's gas and electric utilities to transition to an electrified building sector. The report, crafted by The Brattle Group and developed through the Commission's Electrification Study Workgroup, was recently submitted to key Maryland policymakers, including Governor Wes Moore and chairs of several legislative committees.
Frederick H. Hoover, chair of the Commission, stated, "This analysis provides sound and constructive information to policymakers as they contemplate next steps on the path to achieving Maryland's important greenhouse gas reduction goals." The study aligns with Maryland's Climate Pathway Report, which aims for a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2031 and a net-zero economy by 2045. It forecasts improved air quality, job creation, and household cost savings as additional benefits.
According to the study, Maryland's electric systems could experience a maximum annual demand growth of 2.1% through 2031 under high electrification scenarios. This growth is contingent on energy efficiency plans and demand response programs as outlined in the CSNA. The report suggests efficient electrification policies, including adopting cold climate heat pumps and additional energy efficiency measures, could significantly mitigate electric load growth. Notably, the peak energy usage in Maryland's electric system, currently in summer, is predicted to shift to winter around 2026-2027 with high electrification.
For historical context, Maryland's electric grid saw a 4.9% annual load growth in the 1980s and a more moderate 1.2-1.5% growth from 1990 to 2010, followed by a decline between 2010-2020. The study indicates that the projected peak load growth through 2031 will be comparable to or less than the rates experienced over the past four decades.
Another significant finding is the expected reduction in building sector gas demand by approximately 31-32% by 2031 under high electrification scenarios. The study also incorporates the growth in renewable energy resources, such as solar, and the grid impacts of electric vehicles. Following the Advanced Clean Cars II rule, all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in Maryland will be electric by 2035.
The CSNA mandated the study to assess the impact on gas and electric distribution systems, considering energy efficiency, electric load flexibility, and existing distribution system capacities. The study does not include a cost analysis but focuses on projected demand growth and system improvements to meet this growth.
The complete report is available on the Maryland Public Service Commission's website under 'Reports to the Maryland General Assembly.' Additional insights and a Q-and-A section are provided at the end of the document. This study marks a critical milestone in Maryland's journey towards a sustainable and environmentally responsible future.
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